Best Actress in a Leading Roll isn't so clear cut. Marion Cotillard is coming off a BAFTA win for her turn as Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose and good performances in mediocre films have won before (see Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland). 20 year-old Ellen Page is the lovable underdog for her star-making performance as Juno's titular erudite and eloquent pregnant teen, so she has a shot. But, the Academy loves characters with mental disabilities, so Julie Christie is a solid prospect for Away from Her; she's my pick. That said, never count Laura Linney out: she has to win a statue sometime. Sorry Cate Blanchett, but this isn't your category.

Worry not, Ms. Blanchett, you will win Best Supporting Actress. You can thank Bob Dylan's sunglasses. Amy Ryan was stunningly good in Gone Baby Gone and, in a perfect world, the award would be hers, but Oscar voters have a thing for mild gender play, especially when it involves mythologized poet troubadours with cigarettes played by nearly infallible actresses (true, I don't have a precedent).

As Robert Ford, Casey Affleck was wonderful in the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, but he was even better as the lead in Gone Baby Gone. Occasionally statues are handed out for a compelling body of work rather than a specific film (see the Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), but the Coen Brothers murdered Affleck's chances with a bolt pistol. Though Philip Seymour Hoffman almost saved the underwhelming Charlie Wilson's War, Javier Bardem as No Country for Old Men's principled psycho-path, Anton Chigurh, will ride that menacing man-bob all the way to the podium.

The strongest category in this year's Awards is Cinematography. Atonement's shots of a recreated Miracle at Dunkirk were worth the price of admission while The Assassination of Jesse James…'s lyrical Terrence Malick evocation made extended voice-overs almost bearable. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly's Janusz Kaminski has won Best Cinematography before (Saving Private Ryan and Schindler's List) and by giving an unmoving stroke victim a vivid and frenetic dream life he could again. However, both Roger Deakins, for No Country for Old Men, and Robert Elswit, for There Will be Blood, beautifully helped meld content with form, utilizing stark American desert-scapes (Texas, California, and New Mexico) to create more than mood. If Deakins wins, he must thank the Coens' decision to go soundtrack-less, which shone a spotlight on his sweeping panoramas. Though, I'm guessing this one will go to Elswit (similarly, he owes Johnny Greenwood a debt). Aside from his landscapes, his oil-fire shots were vibrantly rendered and resonant.